It’s the final weekend in most European leagues and our tipster, Jonathan Cordingley, brings you two bets from Italy and two from Spain. Good luck and only ever bet what you can afford to lose.
Juventus v Napoli: Saturday, 17:00
Juventus played in the 2014/15 Coppa Italia final against Lazio on Wednesday evening, and since Allegri’s Old Lady have nothing to play for in Serie A and will have some tired players, or mostly reserves, on show against Napoli, it seems opposing them is worth a shot.
Of course, even though I struck early with Inter Asian line 0 at home to Juve last weekend, Mancini’s boys still lost and Juve won when they didn’t need to, but both of the goals were down to errors and I’m inclined to try again.
However, it has to be said that Napoli, as you probably know, have been far from trustworthy on their travels in Italy this season, but they have the firepower to trouble the champions and need to win to further their 2015/16 Champions League ambitions.
Recommendation: Napoli 0 Asian handicap @ 1.85 with Ladbrokes
Almeria v Valencia: Saturday, 17:30
Almeria are second from bottom and must win with fourth-bottom Deportivo two points clear, while Valencia need three points to seal fourth place and the final UCL place, or at least match Sevilla’s result in Malaga.
All in all, Valencia should win – and my god I hope they do with a sizable pre-season bet on them to finish in the top 4 at 11/4 – so take a Che win if you like, but Valencia have only won one-third of their road games in 2014/15 La Liga competition and BTTS – which fits the match dynamic – has been a relatively constant feature.
Indeed, the last four Valencia games have seen both teams score, with four of their last six away the same. Both teams also notched in the last three Almeria games, including away to Sevilla last weekend.
Plus, both teams scored in each of the last two Almeria home games, vs Malaga and Celta, and the BTTS Yes option has yielded profit in three straight head-to-head matches between Almeria and Valencia, including a 3-2 Valencia win at the Mestalla earlier this season, and over 2.5 goals five times in a row.
In conclusion, with BTTS a mere 1.55, we add the and over 2.5 goals option. It’s a shorter priced than I expected, but it’s the bet I’m most comfortable with in this game.
Recommendation: BTTS & over 2.5 goals @ 1.73 with Bet 365
Granada v Atletico Madrid: Saturday, 17:30
Under new management, Granada have won three games in a row, including last weekend’s 3-0 win at Real Sociedad, and now have the chance of retaining their Primera Liga status by gaining a point or more against Atletico Madrid.
Diego Simeone’s Los Colchoneros lost 1-0 at home to Barcelona last weekend and now need a point or more to guarantee third place and the automatic UEFA Champions League place that it brings.
All in all, then, both teams need a point to meet their respective goals and since Granada are in great form and undefeated under their new coach, while considering that Atleti drew with Levante in their last road game, I’ll throw caution to the wind and back a draw.
I must conclude by saying that Granada would get relegated if they drew against Los Colchoneros and Deportivo won away to Barcelona, but I really can’t see that happening, even if Enrique rests most of his regulars, and the Granada players will be aware of this. Indeed, protect what you have, it’s 99.9% likely to be enough if you can keep that point.
Recommendation: Draw @ 3.2 with Sky Bet
Lazio v Roma: Monday, 17:00
One of the main factors in this Roman derby is that Lazio played Juventus in the Coppa Italia final midweek, while Roma were eliminated in the quarter-finals and therefore have better rested playing personnel.
Of course, with Roma second in the table after beating Udinese 2-1 at the Stadio Olimpico last weekend and Lazio still third, and with just one point between them, the Giallorossi will likely be happy with a draw to keep their eternal rivals at bay.
Indeed, the last two head-to-head games between Lazio and Roma have ended in draws and with such an outcome earning us a half profit, I’m prepared to chance Roma + 0.25.
Recommendation: Roma + 0.25 Asian handicap @ 1.83 with Bet Victor