Carnevale can win the York opener

Peter Teazle has two selections on Saturday and they are both from the afternoon meeting at York.

York 1:50 – Carnevale

This is a very interesting fillies’ handicap and the outcome of it may well revolve around whether there is a decent pace to the race. Maracuja was an impressive winner last time at Ayr off a 6lb lower mark when she was allowed to dictate her own pace, but we would hope on this occasion that she will not be allowed such an easy lead, especially as some of the main contenders are likely to prefer slightly further than this extended 10 furlong trip in due course and a crawl will not be in their favour.

Kleo is respected based on her Lingfield maiden win last time after showing plenty of ability in maidens, but the filly that we like here is the Ralph Beckett trained Carnevale. The daughter of New Approach won her maiden at the third time of asking, when she beat Cape Mystery by 5 lengths at Newbury in June and she acquitted herself very well in her first handicap when beaten by a Sir Michael Stoute hotpot at Leicester off a mark of 77. That race was run at a very sedate pace and Carnevale was outpaced when they quickened in the final couple of furlongs. However she stayed on very well in the closing stages and nearly grabbed second on the line. The clear indication from this contest was that she was well handicapped and that she would improve for a stronger pace or a step up in trip.

She benefits from a slight step up in trip here, but Leicester is a stiffer track and the benefit will be negligible. However a stronger pace will be very beneficial and if there is not sufficient pace, we would like to see Andrea Atzeni make the running. She appeals as a filly that could attain a mark in the low 90s at least, given the right conditions and off 77 in this contest; she is worth having an interest in at 10/3.

York 2:55 – Danadana

Danadana has been successful on one of his two visits to this venue and ran a very solid race when second in the other race he contested. Both were at the Ebor meeting in August, so he is arriving here a little earlier this, but this looks a race that he should be very well suited by and 5/1 looks quite a big price.

He has won 5 of his 15 turf starts, including 1 win at Group 3 level, but he has not managed to win in Group 2 company thus far. However his try at this level was over 1.5 miles and that trip stretches him. He is a 10 furlong horse that wants good quick ground and this combination is what he has today. He has only had one outing so far this season when he was trying to concede a penalty to horses of the calibre of Noble Mission and Telescope at Chester, when the ground was much too soft and he has been given plenty of time to get over those exertions.

The threat here seems to centre around the Saeed Bin Suroor trained Windhoek, but he has always looked like a horse with a fair amount of temperament and he has to progress to win this contest. He may well do so, but the 2/1 about him compared to 5/1 about our selection is a little puzzling and we prefer to side with the Luca Cumani trained 6 year old at these odds.

Recommended Bets

1 point win Carnevale – York 1:50 at 10/3 with Stan James and BetVictor

0.75 points win Danadana – York 2:55 at 5/1 with Bet365 and BetVictor

Betfred Horse Racing

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