The only consolation we can possibly offer to BetPreviews readers after a very poor week 6 is that pretty much every punter and analyst struggled to call the series of odd results that happened last week. The Texans, Falcons and 49ers were the standout performers in the league through the first five weeks of the season yet all three failed to cover the spread at home, and two of the three actually lost. The Falcons weren’t far of coughing up the victory either, against the Raiders of all people. Those kind of results make it very tricky to make a profit – but still, fortune favours the brave and there is plenty of time left to turn things around. We start our look at week 7 with the fascinating clash at the Reliant Stadium.
Baltimore @ Houston
The Ravens coughed up 29 points last week against Dallas, they relied on the Cowboys’ traditional difficulties with kicking to get them over the line, and now they’ve lost Lardarius Webb, who was carrying their secondary. Ed Reed is starting to show signs of decline and even though the Texans have built their season on the back of great play from their running game, this must surely be the time to unleash Andre Johnson and let him go to town on the Baltimore secondary?
The Ravens defense is simply not what it used to be – but their offense is starting to look pretty solid, so on that basis, we’re going to leave the six point spread alone. Instead, take Johnson to finally cut loose and start performing up to his potential.
Cleveland @ Indianapolis
Okay, so the Colts were awful last week. They managed to make Shonn Greene look like a Pro Bowl candidate and that takes some doing. The Browns, on the other hand, broke a long run of losing games and all of a sudden they are being tipped up to win here. The problem is that in the Lucas Oil Stadium, Indy are actually a decent proposition. Plus the Browns are, well, they’re the Browns. No bet.
Dallas @ Carolina
Cam Newton’s form at the moment makes it impossible to trust Carolina. But the Cowboys seem to find new and exciting ways to lose matches every week. We certainly don’t trust them to win at odds on, away from home. Again, no bet.
Arizona @ Minnesota
A season that started out with so much promise in Arizona has turned sour and Kevin Kolb’s injury has clearly unsettled the team. Jon Skelton did a good job at the end of last season but he looked very ordinary against Buffalo, and if you can’t move the chains against Buffalo, you’ve got real problems. Arizona’s defence is getting plenty of praise but they’re only 19th in the league against the run, so it’s reasonable to assume that Minnesota will put the ball into the hands of Adrian Peterson on more than a few occasions. He’s 5/1 to be the first man into the end zone and that looks like a decent bet.
Green Bay @ St Louis
St Louis are 3-0 at the Edward Jones Dome this season so far. Okay, the statisticians among you are screaming at the screen now about how such a small sample size could never be significant, but bear this in mind. The three teams that have come to St Louis have been the Seahawks, the Cardinals and the Redskins. Okay, none of them were on the shortlist of potential Super Bowl winners at the start of the year, but those three teams are now 11-8 for the season, or 11-5 if we leave out those games against the Rams. Green Bay looked devastating last week, but they’ve also looked very ordinary on other occasions. There is no way they can be trusted to cover a six point spread away from home against a team that aren’t as bad as many people believe.
Baltimore @ Houston: Andre Johnson receiving yards over 70.5 @ 4/5 (1pt stake)
Arizona @ Minnesota: Adrian Peterson to score the first TD @ 5/1 (1pt stake)
Profit/Loss to date: -7.12 points (tracking started from Thursday Aug 30th 2012; 45 points staked, -15.8% ROI – not including 16pts of unsettled antepost bets)