NCAAF Week 11 Best Bets

Incredibly, we’re nearing the end of college football’s regular season. After this week most teams will have only one or two games left, so it’s time for us, as bettors, to make a strong move if we see an opportunity. With that in mind, I’ve zeroed in on my first 3-unit play of the year this Saturday (a max play for me); I’ve listed it below along with two others.

Best of luck this week…

Georgia @ Auburn Saturday 17:00 GMT

Line: Auburn -1 (Titanbet)

Both of these teams have had disappointing seasons, but I think one is on the upswing right now while the other is still sinking to the bottom. Of course, you have to look a little deeper than the records (as is often the case in the SEC), because the team that’s playing the better football at the moment– Auburn– has lost two of their past three games, while the other team– Georgia– has won two of three and just beat Kentucky 27-3 last week. You have to keep in mind that Kentucky isn’t particularly good– they’re an underdog against Vanderbilt this week, after all– and in Georgia’s two prior games (a 9-6 win over Missouri and a 27-3 loss to Florida) their offense was exposed for the mess that it is. Will Muschamp has Auburn playing much better defense now than they were in the beginning of the season, and that improvement was on full display in last week’s 26-10 win over an explosive Texas A&M team. Georgia hasn’t done anything particularly well on the offensive end since losing Nick Chubb to a season-ending injury; their quarterback situation is unstable and the offensive line hasn’t been blocking well, and those two factors have made the skill-position talent all but invisible. I’d be very, very surprised if the Dawgs were able to light up the scoreboard on Saturday; their only chance here is keeping this one ugly and forcing the Auburn offense into mistakes. And while that’s possible, I wouldn’t count on it. Auburn is indisputably better than they were in September while Georgia is indisputably worse. I know where my money’s going.

Texas @ West Virginia Saturday 17:00 GMT

Line: West Virginia -8 (bet365)

The Longhorns have won three of their past four games, but the one loss was telling. It came two weeks ago, on the road against a struggling Iowa St. team, and it was ugly. Real ugly. The final score was 24-0, and if you watched the game you know that it felt even uglier than that. Texas was held to just 204 total yards of offense– much of that after the game had already been decided– and they allowed the Cyclones to rush for 238 yards. Keep in mind, we’re talking about an Iowa St. team whose only other wins this season have come against winless Kansas and Northern Iowa, an FCS team. Texas has played once since then, a win over the aforementioned Jayhawks last week, so you’ll have to excuse me if I don’t have any confidence in them being “fixed” or “improved” in any way, even though that’s the narrative that’s being pushed by some. West Virginia has plenty of problems as well, but the Mountaineers have an excellent offense that has been held below 24 points just once in 8 games. Last week they rolled up over 300 rushing yards in a 31-26 win over Texas Tech and their only home loss this season came against undefeated Oklahoma St. in a tight, 7-point affair. Not only is West Virginia going to win this game on Saturday, I think they’re going to win big. Lay the points with confidence.

Oklahoma @ Baylor Sunday 01:00 GMT

Line: Baylor -3 (Coral)

As a sports bettor, we all know the feeling: you’re looking at a game, poring through numbers, past results, injury reports and the like, and all of the sudden it hits you. It’s like you’re struck right between the eyes with a certain clarity about what is going to happen. It’s a great feeling, a blessed feeling, and it doesn’t happen often. When it does, though, one must take advantage. Such a feeling engulfed me when I was looking at this particular game, and I now believe, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that Oklahoma is going to upset Baylor on Saturday. In order to distill and simplify, I’ve boiled down my reasoning to the three following points:

  1. Baylor has beaten– no, humiliated Oklahoma in each of the past two years, winning 41-12 in 2013 and 48-14 last year.
  2. Oklahoma has won four straight games, outscoring the opposition 232-50. It’s the first time since 2008 that the Sooners have topped 50 points in four consecutive games. They also lead the Big 12 in rushing defense, passing defense, yards allowed, and points allowed.
  3. Baylor will be starting freshman Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. It will be the second start of Stidham’s collegiate career.

I could buttress all those points with supporting details, but what’s the point? If you don’t see it by now, I’m probably not going to convince you. For everyone else– if you’re on the fence but leaning Baylor, STAY AWAY! If you’re leaning Oklahoma, jump in with confidence! If you’re like me and nearly certain of the outcome, it’s time to push a big ‘ol stack of chips to the center of the table.

Recommended Bets (1-3 unit scale)

1 unit Auburn -1 at 2.0 (Titanbet)

1 unit West Virginia -8 at 1.8 (bet365)

3 units Oklahoma +3 at 1.87 (Coral)

About Victor Holliday 39 Articles
Our College Football expert residing in the heart of SEC country.

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